Ghana: John Mahama To Win Presidential Election – Polls

John Dramani Mahama, the flag bearer of the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) has been tipped to emerge winner of Ghana’s presidential election in 2025.

In the latest opinion poll conducted by Global InfoAnalytics for the 2023 year-end, Mahama leads with 53.2%, overshadowing the governing New Patriotic Party’s candidate, Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, who trails at 29.6%. Alan Kwadwo Kyeremanten, the former Trade and Industry Minister, secures 7.7% voter support, while 4.2% favor other candidates, and 5.3% remain undecided.

Noteworthy is Mahama’s lead in all regions, except the North-East, indicating a significant shift in voter sentiment. Surprisingly, Mahama now holds the lead in traditionally NPP-strong regions like Ashanti and Eastern, raising concerns about potential voter apathy within the NPP.

Among first-time voters, Mahama maintains a strong lead with 51%, followed by Bawumia at 25%, and Kyeremanten at 8%. The poll reflects growing support for Mahama across various demographics.

Key Policies and Concerns Shaping Voter Sentiment

When voters were questioned about the slogans/policies that caught their attention, the “24-Hr Economy” garnered 50% support, followed by “Blue Economy/Digitization” at 25%, “Great Transformational Plan” at 8%, and 17% expressing no preference.

The poll reveals a prevailing sentiment that Ghana is headed in the wrong direction, with 68% of respondents sharing this view. On the president’s job performance, 63% disapprove, contrasting with 32% who approve.

The majority of voters, 54%, believe their standard of living has worsened in the past 12 months, signaling economic concerns. The poll also indicates a surge in voters expressing dissatisfaction with their living standards, rising from 47% in October 2023 to 54% in December 2023.

Parliamentary Elections and NPP’s Prospects

The poll predicts a potential majority for the NDC in Parliament, with 52% of voters intending to vote for NDC candidates, compared to the NPP’s 31%. This shift signifies a considerable gain for the NDC since October 2023.

On the question of whether the NPP can break the eight-year cycle, 60% of voters believe they will not, while 21% are optimistic about the NPP’s chances.

Confidence in Security and Electoral Institutions

There is growing voter confidence in the Ghana Police Service, with 58% expressing trust in the force to manage the 2024 elections. Additionally, 54% of voters now have confidence in the Electoral Commission, signaling an improvement in public perception.

Factors Dividing Ghanaians

Politics emerged as the primary factor dividing Ghanaians according to 56% of voters, this was followed by ethnicity at 27% and religion at 17%.

Role of Religion and Ethnicity in Voting Decisions

While 76% of voters assert that a candidate’s religion will not influence their vote, 24% believe it will. Similarly, 74% state that ethnicity will not play a role in their voting decision, with 26% suggesting otherwise.

Conducted between December 22nd and 30th, 2023, with 5,881 respondents across all 16 regions and 82 constituencies, the comprehensive poll provides valuable insights into the dynamics shaping Ghana’s political landscape as the nation approaches the 2025 elections.