Vice President Kamala Harris has seen her chances of winning Tuesday’s election sharply rise in the final days of the race, according to a bookmaker.
Polymarket, an online platform where users can place “yes” or “no” bets on the likelihood of world events, currently gives the vice president a 41.4 percent chance of victory, with Donald Trump the favorite at 58.5 percent as of Monday morning.
On October 30, Polymarket said Harris had a 33 percent chance of winning the 2024 election. Trump’s chances of victory have, at time of writing on Monday morning, fallen by nearly 10 points from the 67 percent Polymarket had him at that same day.
Polymarket is a betting platform that is based offshore. It roughly works like a stock exchange where users can buy and sell shares representing future event outcomes, this improving or declining the odds depending on how much money is spent on a particular outcome, in this case who wins the presidential election. If you buy shares of Harris winning when her odds are at 41.4 percent and hold on to them through the election, you will receive a dollar for roughly every 41 cents invested… if, of course, the vice president indeed wins.
Question have arisen around Trump’s odds in Polymarket’s prediction forecast as one person was said to be behind several accounts that have spent millions of dollars betting that Trump will win Tuesday’s race. The former president’s odds of winning on the site have been generally higher than with other forecasters.
Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaign teams as well as Polymarket for comment via email.
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Harris’ improved election odds on the site came after a surprise poll suggested she is beating Trump in Iowa, a state that was previously not considered in play for the Democrat.
The survey from J. Ann Selzer, one of the most respected and accurate pollsters, for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom, showed Harris ahead in Iowa by 47 percent to 44. The result falls within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. The poll of 808 likely Iowa voters was conducted between October 28 and 31.
Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally at Jenison Field House on the Michigan State University campus on November 03, 2024 in Lansing, Michigan. Harris’ chances of winning Tuesday’s election have risen by 8 points…
Trump led Harris in a September Iowa poll by 4 points (47 percent to 43). In a June Selzer survey, Trump had an 18-point lead over President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee at the time. Trump won Iowa in both the 2016 and 2020 elections by margins of nearly 10 and 9 points, respectively.
While the Iowa survey is just a statewide poll, it could indicate that Harris is gaining significant momentum and support as the election campaign ends. Pollsters suggest that if Harris can pull off a surprising result in Iowa, it could have wider implications for the race across the country.
“In a scenario where Harris wins Iowa, she is likely also performing well elsewhere in the Midwest, particularly in Michigan and Wisconsin. In that case, she would already be almost certain to win the Electoral College,” veteran pollster Nate Silver wrote in his Silver Bulletin blog.
Selzer indicated that older women and female independents are largely responsible for the shift toward Harris in Iowa.
Senior women voters support Harris over Trump by 63 percent to 28.
Independent voters, who previously supported Trump in every other Iowa Selzer poll this year, now favor Harris, 46 percent to 39. Independent women also now back Harris over Trump 57 percent to 29, a significant increase from the 5-point lead the vice president had in September’s survey (40 percent to 35).
An Emerson College poll of 800 likely Iowa voters, released on the same day as the Selzer survey, suggests that Tuesday’s election will be more aligned with previous results.
The poll gives Trump a 10-point lead over Harris in Iowa (53 percent to 43). The survey was conducted on November 1 and 2, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
Polymarket is, at time of writing Monday morning, giving Harris an 19 percent chance of winning Iowa on Tuesday, up from 5 percent the day before the Selzer poll was released.
In terms of the seven main swing states, Polymarket currently indicates Harris is the favorite in Wisconsin (59 percent chance of winning to Trump’s 42) and Michigan (61 percent to 40).
Polymarket gives Trump a better chance of victory in Arizona (77 percent to 25), Georgia (66 to 34) Nevada (63 to 37), North Carolina (66 to 35), and Pennsylvania (57 to 44).
